基于SARIMA-GRNN-SVM的短期商业电力负荷组合预测方法

针对短期商业电力负荷预测准确性与周期难以满足现有电力现货市场的问题,提出了一种基于SARIMAGRNN-SVM(seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average-generalized regression neural network-support vector machine)的商业电力负荷组合预测模型。首先,对商业电力负荷变化的周期规律与随机因素的复杂影响进行了分析;然后,结合以上分析,选用SARIMA和GRNN为单一预测模型对商业电力负荷进行预测,并利用SVM进行组合,实现日前商业电力负荷预测;最后,通过某商业综合体的电力负荷数据进行验证。所提组合预测模型较单一预测模型拥有更优的预测精度与鲁棒性,可以为短期商业电力负荷预测提供借鉴。     

Selecting supplier combination based on fuzzy multicriteria analysis

Existing multicriteria analysis (MCA) methods are probably ineffective in selecting a supplier combination. Thus, an MCA-based fuzzy 0-1 programming method is introduced. The programming relates to a simple MCA matrix that is used to select a single supplier. By solving the programming, the most feasible combination of suppliers is selected. Importantly, this result differs from selecting suppliers one by one according to a single-selection order, which is used to rank sole suppliers in existing MCA methods. An example highlights such difference and illustrates the proposed method.     

The power average operator for unbalanced linguistic term sets

In order to aggregate linguistic values of unbalanced linguistic term sets, this paper introduces the linguistic proportional 2-tuple power average operator, which can reflect the relationship among the aggregated values by considering the support for each value from others. Its advantage regarding other linguistic power average operators enables it to be used in such cases in which the linguistic term sets are not necessarily to be balanced, and the membership functions of the linguistic terms are utilized in the computational processes. In this operator, a linguistic proportional 2-tuple is represented by a normalized numerical representation. Some properties of the operator are discussed. A group decision making model based on the proposed operator is introduced. Finally an illustrative example is presented.     

一种基于证据推理的视频运动目标融合检测算法

为了解决复杂场景下传统的运动目标检测问题, 利用证据推理—–谨慎有序加权平均方法(COWA-ER), 提出一种综合使用混合高斯、均值滤波和码本的多方法融合的检测方法. 该融合检测算法以上述3 种检测方法为准则建立一个多准则决策框架, 通过双阈值检测法来表征检测过程中的不确定性, 最终利用COWA-ER 方法进行决策级融合, 实现多种方法的优势互补. 实验表明, 所提出的融合检测算法具有更理想的目标检测效果, 能有效应对诸如阴影及光照突变等问题对检测性能的影响.

     

Ant colony approaches for multiobjective structural optimization problems with a cardinality constraint

Two Ant Colony Optimization algorithms are proposed to tackle multiobjective structural optimization problems with an additional constraint. A cardinality constraint is introduced in order to limit the number of distinct values of the design variables appearing in any candidate solution. Such constraint is directly enforced when an ant builds a candidate solution, while the other mechanical constraints are handled by means of an adaptive penalty method (APM). The test-problems are composed by structural optimization problems with discrete design variables, and the objectives are to minimize both the structure’s weight and its maximum nodal displacement. The Pareto sets generated in the computational experiments are evaluated by means of performance metrics, and the obtained designs are also compared with solutions available from single-objective studies in the literature.     

Trust based consensus model for social network in an incomplete linguistic information context

A theoretical framework to consensus building within a networked social group is put forward. This article investigates a trust based estimation and aggregation methods as part of a visual consensus model for multiple criteria group decision making with incomplete linguistic information. A novel trust propagation method is proposed to derive trust relationship from an incomplete connected trust network and the trust score induced order weighted averaging operator is presented to aggregate the orthopairs of trust/distrust values obtained from different trust paths. Then, the concept of relative trust score is defined, whose use is twofold: (1) to estimate the unknown preference values and (2) as a reliable source to determine experts’ weights. A visual feedback process is developed to provide experts with graphical representations of their consensus status within the group as well as to identify the alternatives and preference values that should be reconsidered for changing in the subsequent consensus round. The feedback process also includes a recommendation mechanism to provide advice to those experts that are identified as contributing less to consensus on how to change their identified preference values. It is proved that the implementation of the visual feedback mechanism guarantees the convergence of the consensus reaching process.     

Intelligent engineering asset management system for power transformer maintenance decision supports under various operating conditions

Large sized transformers are an important part of global power systems and industrial infrastructures. An unexpected failure of a power transformer can cause severe production damage and significant loss throughput the power grid. In order to prevent power facilities from malfunctions and breakdowns, the development of real-time monitoring and fault prediction tools are of great interests to both researches and practitioners. This research develops an intelligent engineering asset management system for power transformer maintenance. The system performs real-time monitoring of key parameters and uses data mining and fault prediction models to detect transformers’ potential failure under various operating conditions. Principal component analysis (PCA) and a back-propagation artificial neural network (BP-ANN) are the algorithms adopted for the prediction model. Historical industrial power transformer data from Taiwan and Australia are used to train and test the failure prediction models and to verify the proposed general methodology as comparative case studies. The PCA algorithm reduces the number of the primary dissolved gasses as the key factor values for BP-ANN prediction modeling inputs. The system yields effective predictions when verified using various operating condition data from Australia and Taiwan power companies. The accuracy rates are much higher when compared to the fault prediction results without using PCA. The intelligent system combining PCA and BP-ANN algorithms, developed in this research, can be adopted by asset managers in different regions to develop suitable maintenance and repair strategies for transformer failure preventions.     

A web-based screening model for climate risk to water supply systems in the northeastern United States

The aim of this study is to describe the development and application of a web-based decision support tool (ViRTUE) for performing climate risk evaluations of water supply systems. The tool is designed for small-scale water utilities in the northeastern United States that may lack the resources for detailed climate change risk investigations. Development of this tool demonstrates a relatively new approach to web application development using the Shiny framework for the R programming language to create an interactive environment for stakeholders and water managers to explore climate vulnerabilities. Using a decision-scaling framework, the tool allows the user to perform a climate stress test to evaluate the performance and vulnerability to water supply shortfalls of local reservoir systems over a wide range of potential climate change scenarios using a generic systems model. Probabilities of future climate conditions derived from climate projections then help inform utility operators of impending risk.     

偶联反应器格栅的制作和组装工艺

格栅支持板是换热器中的主要部件,尤其是大尺寸的格栅支持板,以前国内没有先例,如何编制好它的制作工艺和程序,并且在实际过程中得到很好的执行,遇到问题及时调整处置,对它的加工、组装、和整体安装有着特别重要的作用。